編輯按：作者杜新係新華社廣西分社社長、高級記者。從事新華社報道工作20多年，積極倡導以區域經濟新聞視角關注中國與東盟合作。著有《中國脊梁》，主編《新華社記者看M戰略》、《新華社記者看CAFTA》、《南寧之路》、《誠信中國》等專著。其中"關注發展極"、"關注關聯經濟"、"東盟熱的冷思考"等觀點文章引起社會關注。2007年9月，他研究思考多年的有關東盟及區域經濟合作的著作《關聯經濟：一種新的財富視角》一書已由新華出版社出版。
導讀
“蝴蝶效應”是指在一個動力係統中，初始條件下微小的變化能帶動整個係統的長期的巨大的連鎖反應。"蝴蝶效應"之所以令人著迷、令人激動、發人深省，不但在于其大膽的想像力和迷人的美學色彩，更在于其深刻的科學內涵和內在的哲學魅力。大湄公河次區域合作為地緣經濟學提供了一份難得的"蝴蝶效應"案例。
類似深刻揭示關聯規律的案例還有“兩廊一圈”。由越南領導人和中國領導人共同商定的"兩廊一圈"合作協定，被視為中國－東盟自由貿易區建設一個突破性的進展。以“泛北合作”為主的中國－東盟“一軸兩翼”區域經濟合作構想揭示著發展中國家在合作規律上卓有成效的進展。
第四章通過"湄公河的蝴蝶效應、兩廊一圈的智慧視角、從極化效應到擴散效應、從貿易轉移到貿易創造、從比較優勢到後發優勢"等文，從實證與反證的角度回答了關聯理論關于發展中國家共同面臨的世紀難題。
Chapter 4
：Substantial Evidence and Counterevidence
Introduction：
Butterfly effect is a
phrase meaning that small variations of the initial condition of a dynamical
system may produce large variations in the long term behavior of the system. The
term “butterfly effect” is so attractive， exciting and profound，owing to the
unique imagination and aesthetic color of the term itself and to its rich
scientific and philosophic meanings as well. And Greater Mekong Subregion
Economic Cooperation Program (GMS) is a good case of “butterfly effect” in
geography economics.
There are other cases explaining relating
law，such as “Two Corridors and One Circle” strategy，which is a cooperation
agreement made by leaders of Vietnam and China and is regarded as a great step
forward in constructing CAFTA. And the cooperation framework of “One Axis and
Two Wings ”of China-ASEAN based on PBG Cooperation again gives evidence to the
advancement in finding cooperation laws for developing countries.杄
In this chapter，with papers such as
“Butterfly Effect of Mekong”，a Wise perspective of “Two Corridors and One
Circle”，the sections are contributed to give positive and negative evidences in
order to deal with the century problem proposed by the Relating Theory and
facing all developing countries.
實證一：湄公河的“蝴蝶效應”
摘要：地緣經濟學裏的“蝴蝶效應”；大湄公河次區域合作的地緣優勢；中國積極參與大湄公河次區域合作；大湄公河次區域合作的關聯機制；國際社會關注的“蝴蝶效應”；催生中國與東盟深化合作的“蝴蝶效應”。
延伸閱讀>>>>
Evidence One：“Butterfly
Effect of Mekong River”
Abstract：In this section the following topics are discussed：the
“butterfly effect” in geography economics；the geographic advantage of
GMS；China’s positive participation in GMS；the relating mechanism in GMS；the
“butterfly effect” concerned by international society；and creation of the
“butterfly effect” in further cooperation between China and
ASEAN.杄
實證二：“兩廊一圈”的智慧視角
摘要：“兩廊一圈”的越南構想；“兩廊一圈”的越南視角；“兩廊一圈”的越南動態；“兩廊一圈”的中國視野；“兩廊一圈”與“泛北合作”的關聯視角。 延伸閱讀>>>>
Evidence Two： the
Wise View of “Two Corridors and One Circle”
Abstract：The following articles will be presented to readers in this
section：the Vietnam’s Construction framework of “Two Corridors and One Circle”
concerning Vietnam；Seeing “Two Corridors and One Circle” strategy from the
perspective of Vietnam；the present status of “Two Corridors and One Circle” in
Vietnam；Seeing “Two Corridors and One Circle” strategy from China’s
perspective；and the relating perspective of “Two Corridors and One Circle” and
PBG Programs.
實證三：從極化效應到擴散效應
摘要：從“東糖西移”到“東桑西移”；產業西移，漂亮的軟著陸；農業關聯產業轉移凸顯擴散效應；全新的循環生態農業模式；農業產業轉移，依然漂亮地向明天延續。 延伸閱讀>>>>
Evidence Three：From
Polarization Effect to Diffusion Effect
Abstract：The main topics of this section are：from “the western move of
eastern sugar industry” to “the western move of eastern silkworm industry”；the
western move of industry finding its sound environment；diffusion effect shown in
the industry diversion relating to agriculture；a brand-new agriculture pattern
of circulation ecology；agriculture industry diversion extending well to
tomorrow.杄
實證四：從貿易轉移到貿易創造
摘要：中國—東盟合作將面臨什麼樣的貿易效應？發展中國家後來居上的必由之路。 延伸閱讀>>>>
Evidence Four：From
Trade Diversion to Trade Creation
Abstract：What
trade effect is facing China-ASEAN cooperation? What is the only way for
late-development for developing countries? - These are the questions discussed
in this section
.
實證五：中國—東盟農業合作：從比較優勢到後發優勢
摘要：中國農業產業擴散效應給中國—東盟合作的啟示；中國企業尋找與東盟農業的關聯之道；關聯昭示：出路在于體係同構但產業互補。 延伸閱讀>>>>
Evidence
Five：Agricultural Cooperation of China-ASEAN：from Comparative Advantage to
Late-Development Advantage
Abstract：In this section，the author concentrates on three subjects：the
revelation of China-ASEAN cooperation given by the diffusion effect of Chinese
agriculture industry，the approach for Chinese enterprises to be related to ASEAN
agriculture，and a relating suggestion：the way out relying on co-construction of
system and industry mutual help at the same time.杄
反證篇：關聯失誤震塌巴林金融大廈
摘要：規律不容漠視，歷史不能忘記。關聯規律提醒我們，財富既有著正向的乘法效應與後發效應，也有著負向的除法效應及遏制效應，越是在財富的金字塔之上，人間的悲喜劇越是演繹得淋漓盡致，譬如巴林金融大廈的坍塌——關聯效應：從個人失誤到銀行倒閉；關聯失誤：從最小的關聯交易開始；尼克·裏森自白：我是如何弄垮巴林銀行的；巴林悲劇：有多少關聯教訓可以汲取。 延伸閱讀>>>>
Counterevidence：the Misplay of Relating Brought down Barings Financial
World
Abstract：Laws can’t be neglected and history can’t be forgotten.
Relating law reminds us that wealth has its positive multiplicative effect and
late-effect；on the other hand，it also has negative division effect and
controlling effect. The higher is a person on the pyramid of wealth，the more
dramatic life of ups-and-downs may he experiences. The best example is the down
of Barings financial world，which explains well the relating effect：an
individual’s mistake leads to the bankruptcy of a bank；the relating misplay
always begins at the smallest relating trade. Also in this section，Nick Leeson’s
confession is presented：How I brought down Barings Bank，which makes us
thinking：how many relating lessons we can draw from the Barings
tragedy.
中英雙文:《關聯經濟》第一章 世紀命題
關聯五問
Relating Economy Chapter 1: Five
Centennial Questions of Relating Economy
中英雙文:《關聯經濟》第二章 發現新加坡
Relating Economy
Chapter 2: Discovering Singapore
中英雙文:《關聯經濟》第三章 關聯經濟原理
Relating
Economy Chapter 3: The Theory of Relating
Economy
更多內容，歡迎訪問“讀書”欄目
（全文見《關聯經濟：一種新的財富視角》，杜新著，新華出版社，2007年9月。）
