Feature: COVID-19 pandemic becomes major hurdle in life of ordinary Britons

Source: Xinhua| 2020-12-01 22:42:31|Editor: huaxia

by Oliver Jarvis

LONDON, Dec. 1 (Xinhua) -- Just before the coronavirus pandemic hit Britain, David Lewis, a university graduate, decided to take a gap year "for personal reasons" before embarking on his Masters degree.

But halfway through his time away from education, he came to realise that the pandemic was going to be a major hurdle in his life plans.

"My thinking was that no matter how bad it got after my masters, with the pandemic, I could always go teaching abroad for a couple of years whilst I looked and applied for PhD programmes," Lewis said.

But the pandemic forced a nationwide lockdown, and subsequently blew the country's economy -- forcing economic activity to come to a standstill and leave a lasting impact on the job market.

"It's amazing how even that surefire bet has been destroyed by the situation. I'll be lucky to get a retail job in the coming year," he said.

"I'm not really crying, rather I'm laughing at the absurdity of it all. It's all shaping up to potentially be worse than the 2008 crash," said Lewis.

According to Peter Dixon, senior economist at Commerzbank in London, Lewis is correct in his comparison.

"This is a much bigger hit on the economy. It's affected both the demand side and the supply side," Dixon told Xinhua.

"At least back in 2008/09, it was primarily demand that was affected, people left their jobs, credit dried up. And obviously, that generated a momentum, which led to what looked at the time to be a pretty dramatic decline in activity," he said.

"This time around, yes, we've had the same impact upon demand. But the supply side has been affected. Large numbers of businesses were shut down from March until the middle of May, so two months of production virtually lost," said Dixon.

"If you look at the decline in output, between April and June, the economy contracted by 20 percent, which is unprecedented, and any data that we have to hand you have to go back about 300 years to see the same kind of hit to the economy as we're likely to experience in 2020," Dixon added.

For Dixon, it's difficult to draw a direct comparison between the economic hit of the coronavirus and 2008/09 -- but lessons can be learnt from what followed in the years after the markets crashed.

"In 2008 many people thought the economy would rebound very quickly. Of course, it didn't, it took four or five years before output got back to pre-crisis levels," Dixon said.

"Given the degree of economic scarring, the extent of the hits that we've taken and the mess that we need to clear up, it's going to take something similar this time around, despite the fact that many people think there will be a sharp turn around once the vaccine kicks in," Dixon said.

The British economy is forecast to shrink by 11.3 percent this year, the worst recession in more than 300 years in the country as a result of the coronavirus crisis, British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak said in late November.

The latest official figures also showed that Britain's unemployment rate rose to 4.8 percent in the three months to September 2020, up from 4.1 percent in the previous quarter. And the unemployment rate among 16 to 24 years old, who make up much of the staff across restaurants, bars and hotels, was 14.6 percent in August 2020. Overall unemployment is expected to reach 7.5 percent next year.

For Dixon, the uncertainty surrounding the situation is what is causing a headache for not only those who play a key part in driving the British economy, but for people like Lewis who are looking for post-graduate jobs.

"Although they have been supported by a series of government programs, which have prevented them from laying off huge numbers of people that would otherwise have lost their jobs, there's a significant degree of uncertainty with regards to many of these businesses as to whether they'll be able to bounce back next year.

To bring more certainties to people's lives amid the COVID-19 pandemic, countries such as Britain, China, Germany, Russia and the United States are racing against time to develop coronavirus vaccines.

However, Britain is not only facing the coronavirus having a big impact on its economy, it also suffers from the prospect of a no-deal Brexit.

"And even if there was a deal at this very late stage, it's going to be so skinny in its coverage," he said.

"So I think for the sort of ordinary person, the word which best describes the current situation is uncertainty, uncertainty with regards to their future where the wider economy goes," he added. Enditem

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